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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  November 6, 2019 10:00am-11:01am EST

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york, 3:00 p.m. in london, from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: and from london, i'm guy johnson. welcome to bloomberg markets. vonnie: we are seeing a direction today in markets, the s&p 500 unchanged, the nasdaq down .2%, but plenty of earnings movers to talk about. the most talked about stock uber. is cbs and papa john's posting --nings, cbs particularly papa john's particularly pleasing investors. many changes in the works, including several executive changes. he also announced that next year, the cfo will be leaving everyplace. in treasury lands, the 10-year is at 1.83 today, guy. guy: we are seeing a bit of a move in the bond market over here as well. stocks at a headline that recently flat, the stoxx 600 up,
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but the bond proxies are back and they are big, the car sector an similar stories like that are selling off. german ten-year yields catching more of a bid. something i want to highlight this afternoon is we are seeing emerging-market currencies being sold off, including the russian ruble and the south korean -- south american rant. -- south african rand. for a bloomberg scoop, sources saying chinese state-owned entities are in talks to invest $5 billion to $10 billion in aramco's ipo. this comes as saudi arabia seeks commitment from friendlier governments to shore up the
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sale. we are joined now by our bloomberg reporter. how much is this impacting u.s. markets and analyst today who might be interested in the ongoing deal? >> we knew this was going to get attention from a lot of the big sovereign wealth funds, they were going to be the folks to put their money behind it. this is a huge deal for china. most people want to wait to see what kind of dividends saudi aramco is going to have. they have committed to a minimum of $75 billion. at the top and of their range, we are talking a dividend yield of 7%, 7.5%, more than you get out of a western oil company, which is about 5%. an em oil company, 6%. if they come in with a dividend yield and the 7% range, money will flow out of some of those western oil companies, out of emerging-market oil companies and into aramco, if those other companies do not also boost their dividend yield. guy: i wonder if whether or not
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actually you will see some of the western investments flowing in that direction, romaine. it will be fascinating to see. you have been seeing a lot of outflows from world companies recently, and that might have to do with climate concern. do you think that western investors are going to be putting money to work here? romaine: i think so. we have heard from several analysts, including at sanford bernstein and seek u.s. -- and cqs, if you have any weighting in the oil and gas industry, you will be looking to make room for saudi aramco, whether you like it or not. the question will be going forward whether you build on those positions, particularly when it is not clear what direction oil prices are going in. even right now in the $50 range brentnd $60 plus range on , it is not clear that that will
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be sustainable over the long term, if it falls below $60 and holds below $60 for any amount of time, that calls into question the valuation that the saudis wants to put this ideal in. western money managers have been pushing back on the company's valuation, and i am wondering if this series of investments from chinese state own entities, if that would change the metrics on valuation at all. romaine: it does, and gets to the political side of the equation. once the scoop roque, what other nations, what other sovereign wealth funds are saying, we are not going to let china gain control of this company or have a meaningful stake in this company without us also having a meaningful stake? so look to sovereign wealth funds first and then some of the big pension funds, and see if they are willing to come in and play. i think they will wait until december 11, wait to get the ipo out there and see what stake china puts in, and you will see
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some of those other funds follow, whether they want to are not. guy: let's talk about uber. a big lock today. at a discount -- i expect they would have probably had to have been at a discount. romaine, what does this say about where we are and give us a better understanding of what uber is doing, but what is the translation for softbank as well? romaine: you are seeing two things, folks who want to exit their positions who have been in their positions for quite some time, but when you look at the price action this morning, you are seeing a lot of demand for the shares. this is a huge lockup, the biggest we have had, and when you talk about hundreds of millions of shares coming into the market, it will depress the prices. percent, 4%hat, two at the moment and buyers are willing to come in and scoop up some of these shares. i think there is a long-term play when it comes to ridesharing, and people look at the core business and see a future. whether this says something
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broader about softbank and its investments, you have some people who are willing to take a flyer on these shares. they are looking at a stock down from its ipo40% price, and they see a bargain, relatively speaking. vonnie: does it mean that standards are getting higher for when these mega-growth companies see profit? absolutely. you saw that in regard to some of the earnings releases we have seen already out of uber as well as the unicorns that have come out. there is an idea that you have to have the revenue growth. we have known they always had to have that, but they want to see a path to profitability and profit growth. there is a sense with uber specifically that they cannot turn off the faucet of spending and turn on the faucet in regards to raising prices on customers, and that will get them to profitability, which uber says 2021, 2022, they are going to be asked. atyou believe them, you buy $29 a share. if you do not, you wait it out longer. guy: let's talk about some
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breaking news crossing, china pacific discussing buying a $2 .illion stake in swiss re we will get more on this story as we get it. we will come back to that story. story, walk usp through what we know? romaine: the wall street journal and other publications are reporting that hp -- excuse me, xerox, is putting together a bid for hp. xerox is about the third the size of hp, but we know their future is going to be tethered to another company. hp, we are talking about hpq, is the one they are going after. they have lined up financing. bloomberg is reporting they have financing lined up with citigroup and they are willing to go out there and make a bid. you are talking about two legacy type is mrs., some businesses that folks have already --
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, some type businesses businesses that folks have already written off, but they are making their own monopoly where they can survive and they can thrive. vonnie: the stock is up only 10%. is up 2%. xerox stock hpq is up 10%. the trump administration is optimistic about reaching an interim trade deal with china. that's according to commerce equity or a wilbur ross. he spoke with reporters in indonesia, insisting that chinaent trump -- insisting president trump rollback tariffs before the deal is signed. president trump and the republican party suffered setbacks in two states in off year elections. in kentucky, governor matt bevin faces what could be an upset loss in his reelection bid. the race has not been called. in virginia, democrats seized
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both houses of the legislator from -- legislature from republicans. prime minister boris johnson's reelection bid has been rocked resignation. johnson formally began his campaign today, for the summer 12 election. and india, the u.s., and china saw some of the biggest rises in greenhouse gas emissions last year, according to a report from a consulting firm. that is because of booming byrgy consumption dominated fossil fuel. a similar story in south asia. in missions jumped -- emissions jumped due to a growing use of coal. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. i want to come back to this
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story relating to swiss re, stocks spiking is coming down again on a bloomberg report. china pacific looking to discuss at $2 billion stake in swiss re, swiss re being very keen to find a situation where it can expand in asia. the stock up by 1.64%. we are, though, trying to figure out exactly what the details are here. they are also looking for another anchor investor. softbank was pursuing a stake in wrist -- swiss re. that's the stock right now, up 1.64%. this is bloomberg. ♪\
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: and from london, i'm guy johnson. this is bloomberg markets. look at the markets with abigail doolittle. abigail: not a lot of direction to the trading we are seeing this when they. makes moves in the u.s., the s&p 500 fractionally higher, the tech heavy nasdaq down about 2%. the day is young and it seems as though maybe the bulls are going to try to push through, but without a lack of trade headlines and some disappointing economic data earlier today, productivity dropping for the first time since 2015. that is true for the german dax, everything ag little bit risk off, as we have bonds trading higher, yields lower for the first time in four days, influencing sectors beneath the surface. if i use the bloomberg i can
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show you what i am talking about. more risk on than it has been from half an hour to go -- half down .3%.o, now perhaps going to turn that around into today, the best three days for energy going all the way back to 2015 or 16, on top, some of the rate sensitive sectors and high dividend looking good for investors with yields lower. let's take a look at the movers in europe bonding. hp up 9.7%. the possibility of a buyout from 18%. at the highs, tapestry, a disappointing quarter. investors do not like that they a review. they boosted in a key capital view, and dialog semiconductor down 6.6%, they are quarter they they beat, quarter but investors are
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selling their shares on the day. one of the largest players in global and commercial real estate since the stock soaring. it is back a little bit today, but up about 4.5% over the last few days. that this is due to sf. acquisition of broker h we want to welcome our guest this morning -- welcome, christian. more than 40% of your business is in the new -- u.s. what are your thoughts about how strong this can continue to be? christian: the cycle has been a very extended one. the u.s. market is the strongest market in the world and we saw nice rebounds on the capital market in the third quarter, 22% up year-over-year, so we have
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room to grow in that cycle and we are very optimistic about that. the u.s. youde of have already developed something like 5 million square meters of logistics warehouses in places like japan and other asian nations, and you've got a lot underway in china right now as well. since the trade war started, what do you know about the china -- what have you noticed about the china economy? theirian: china is making play forward. they have a long-term view of how they develop their economy and we have seen them being very focused on that. the market in china was very robust in the third quarter. you saw it in our own numbers and also in the market numbers, where we saw slight constraints on the leasing side. uptake is sluggish at the moment. it is not as good as it was, but it is still moving ahead nicely. guy: good morning, guy in london. let's talk about wework.
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what effect is the wework crisis having on property markets both in new york, london, and elsewhere? wework has received obviously lots of attention. i would like to remind everybody that we have about 8000 flex space operators that are delivering their services to corporate clients and occupiers overall, so we work has had a great run in making themselves prominent and raising the attention for that sector, but others are there as well. i do not think the impact of the current situation is that strong. is overall flex-based market around the offices world. it will continue to grow significantly over the next 10 years. wework is still there and what they want to do, others will do. i do not think this is any kind of turning point to the cycle, just because of wework. in many buildings we have
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seen wework acting as an anchor investor, they are an anchor in that building and as a result of which i kind of wonder what happens now that we work is not going to take as much space on board, how that is going to affect new building development, how those buildings are attracting other clients, it must have a significant sort of affect in certain key properties. christian: well, the take-up is very, very strong around the globe. record lowtes at a globally, so the market is in a very healthy state. where wesome pockets work has been particularly strong, here in new york is one of those pockets, but the leasing market is strong here and i would caution to overstate the impact of the situation around wework. investment markets have had this
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billion of those actions, and wework is a very, very small part of that. the market will be able to digest the situation. acquired hsf, right after you mentioned there was going to be a lot of consolidation in the base. those who have over $5 billion to invest would have to look in one or two markets. do you see other potential acquisition targets? growing firstare and foremost organically, and when we have an opportunity to leapfrog with an acquisition we do so. hsf was a brilliant opportunity for us and we are very pleased with how it is coming in, and you saw it in our third quarter results. predominantly, we tried to move on in an organic way, and there is a lot of things going on at this moment in the world.
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it is a good situation to be a little bit cautious, to see how things are moving on. footprint here in the u.s., but we also have a pretty significant footprint in europe and asia, and the political situation is not everywhere that is [inaudible] guy: a quick question from london, what kind of brexit are you looking for? if we get a boris johnson break the deal, what effect will that have on the london property market? first and foremost, we need certainty. whatever is coming now as a deal, we need certainty for the markets. the level of uncertainty in the past couple of quarters has been unbelievable, and has really hit the london market. transaction volumes have collapsed and that is not a good thing for the u.k. and it is not a good thing for europe overall. we only hope that they decide on something. i would still like to see them stay in the eu.
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it only creates losers, that situation. out,f they want to get they should get out as soon as possible and ideally on a contractual basis with the eu. vonnie: thanks for joining us. we are out of time, but congratulations on your continued success. jll ceo christian ulbrich. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: and from london, i'm guy johnson. this is bloomberg markets. time now for muni moments. let's join taylor riggs. taylor: i'm joined by julio bonilla, a u.s. fixed income portfolio manager at schroders. we talked about increasing supply recently, pushing up that ratio. are those now attractive compared to treasuries? julio: they are moderately
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attractive. , we you think about munis look at the entire fixed income universes for our clients. when you think about them versus other alternates, like mortgage backed securities, the real driver behind that is the fact that we are in low absolute yields. for our clients, it is a function of, you are not getting paid to take duration risk, so we are focused on the front-end of the curve. it is that where we do not think munis are quite as attractive. but if you are looking at treasuries, there is value there. taylor: with the low absolute yields, you highlighted that you think of duration risk the same as credit risk. what do you think at this moment? julio: when we are thinking about duration risk, our target is a three to four year type range, and that is our best value when we are thinking about breakeven analysis. that is the staggering part, when you think about how much you can lose with a few basis points when you are buying at the long end of the curve, but at the front end of the curve we
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are finding more value, whether it is more traditional mortgage backed securities, high-level corporate bonds, and even in the money market instruments in the muni space. we are finding value there as well. taylor: what percentage of your portfolio is cash to take advantage of any potential q4 selloff? it's t-bills, municipal securities, beauty which we consider to be a second form of liquidity in the fixed income universe. that will give us the opportunity to take advantage of nuances in the market that might create value further out the curve. taylor: and quickly, you know that munis typically lack industrials. walk me through that correlation? julio: absolutely. for munis, a lot of the economic activity that takes place today, we will not see that in fundamental data from issuers for the next 12 to 10 months.
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for us, it is easy to look at the economy today and say ok, this is a model we will see for municipal issuers. when i look 12 months ago and fast-forward to today, they look ok for municipal issuers. i do not think it is municipal data that will drive that, it will be the move in rates. fixed: julio bonilla, income manager at schroders, thank you for joining us. vonnie: still ahead on bloomberg markets, run a process speaks. the south african president tells bloomberg why he wants the u.s.-china trade war to end. have a look at the major indices, struggling to find direction. lindsay of movement underneath and in individual stocks. this is bloomberg.
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: and from london i'm guy johnson. this is bloomberg markets. vonnie: let's take a look at the
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price of wti, $57.59. there has been a buildup. markets looking for another build this week end of the client in glass lean inventories -- gasoline inventories and for a final utilization to come in at 7.7%. we got the build, but it was bigger than anticipated, an 8 million barrel build in wti and as you might anticipate, that is taking off some sense of the barrel right now, $57.42. build in almost 8 million barrels. -- refinery utilization was down and gasoline inventories down as well by 2.8 million barrels, more than the market was looking for. let's take you to the
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bloomberg first word news, here's ritka gupta. outputs decrease at an annual .3% in the third quarter, suggesting the pickup and efficiency earlier this year was more of a temporary shift. the international monetary fund's to prepare for the worst in its reasonable -- fund is warning europe to prepare for the worst. the fund says that the scope of effective monetary policy has diminished. if they u.k. leaves the eu with an agreement, the imf warns the country's economic outlook would fall 3.5% in two years. in san francisco, voters agreed to move ahead with a ban on e-cigarettes. earlier this year, officials passed a law to prevent anyone from buying nicotine vaporizers until the product gets fda approval. the biggest e-cigarette maker juul led an effort to overturn the law.
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more than 80% of those who voted rejected that attempt. and voters in new york city have approved a measure to create a rainy day fund. the savings would help shield the city from tax hikes and program cuts during the next economic downturn. new york still needs state legislators to lift fiscal controls imposed during the 1970's. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritka gupta, this is bloomberg. guy: so manus cranny sat down with the south african president, cyril ramaphosa, on the sidelines of the south .frica invest conference they discussed the state of the economy and the impact of u.s.-china trade. the trade wars: that are taking place are not good for growth. they are not good for our economy, so we want to trade
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wars to come to an end. the trade wars, one factor certainly affecting south africa, but many of the problems the country faces, homegrown. mike brown joins us now from johannesburg. this around, thank you for taking the time to join us. the president is pointing the finger at the trade war for what is happening in south africa right now, but as i say, much of what is happening is homegrown. what does the president need to do to generate growth in this economy? good evening.nd quite right, the trade wars are certainly not help all, as we come through a very difficult 10 years as a country and we are at the early stages of a political and institutional turnaround. really what the president needs to do is begin implementing many of the reform issues that our country is now talking about, in
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particular, those reforms around state owned enterprises and trying to free up some of the regulatory burdens and red tape to enable a more vibrant business community as a catalyst for higher levels of economic growth. guy: why is it taking so long? why isn't the president or the country moving faster on these? some of these things that need to happen in south africa are very obvious. some are difficult, like escom, but they need action and need it quite quickly. certainly agree that we need action and we need it quickly. some reasons why it is taking longer than many of us would like is as a result of the damage done to our economy and institutions over the last 10 years, which is greater than many of us thought it was. so inevitably, that job is going to take longer, but certainly there is some low hanging fruit. i think of things like the visa regime and the spectrum that
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needs to be released that are not contentious in any way. mike, how exposed is net banks to the death of state companies, and are you looking to reduce your exposure or amend your exposure at all in the light of the moody's downgrade? maybe not by friday, but at some point? africandeed, the south banking system has limited exposure to state owned enterprise. if you look at escon states, the majority of escon states are held either by asset managers or international banks or development financing is the duchenne -- financing institutions. if you look at our balance sheet and think about it, in excess of 25% of that rand, is exposed to state owned institutions, the vast majority of which carry government their
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-- guarantees. vonnie: how likely do you think it is that south africa can avoid tariffs getting slapped on it? what with the impact be to your certainly a mike: downgrade is not good for anybody in south africa. if one looks at the banking system, we are very fortunate we have a strong banking system, it is well capitalized, and across most banks, 90% to 95% of the liquidity in the banking system in south africa is domestic. in the environment of debt downgrades, in an environment of exchange control, that money cannot go anywhere. yes, there might be some impact on pricing, but the larger impact would be on foreign lending, and that is limited in the south african sector. i think the safety and the soundness of the sector would
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not be compromised in any way, but growth and profit ability would clearly be under -- profitability would clearly be under pressure. a strong, there is correlation between your share price and the rand. where do you see the rand going? mike: well, i think the correlation between bank share prices and the macroeconomic environment with which they operate is very strong all over the world. i think it is very difficult to give what direction any currency goes in, just look on friday night. after moody's changed their outlook, the rand actually strengthened from friday to today. i think if we are able to stave off the downgrade by february, march of next year, moody very clearly said that government does have a window to implement structural reform and to reduce costs, create more fiscal space.
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if we continue to do that, we will see a continued strengthening in the rand and the opposite of that will also be true. guy: your share price is --erperforming peer underperforming your peer group. what is the key to turning that around? mike: if you look at the net bank share price, we outperformed the peer group last year and underperformed the peer group this year. so on an 18 month basis we have been in line with the peer group. but if you look at the underlying makeup of nedbank compared to our peers, we are more south african-centric. of view, nedbank point we are more dependent on the macroeconomic environment in south africa. vonnie: mike, what can nedbank due to expand the price of the bank and increase the lending parts of the bank?
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certainly on the commercial and corporate side, nedbank has about 60% market share in south africa. that is an area we are really, really strong in. the area of expansion for us has been our retail franchise, where we have around 30% to 14 -- 13% to 14% market share. has been the digitization journey that we have been on, like many banks in the world, and we are on that right now, where we have began to digitize products in the front office environments, personal loans are available digitally, and that gives us a competitive advantage in the short term in this market. anemic for theis country as a whole. i'm wondering how optimistic you are that this will pick up and benefit banks like yours? yes, i think certainly from a growth point of view, our
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outlook for growth this year is around about .5% gdp growth for the country and looking forward for the next few years, between 1% and 1.5%. that is a very in even greater anemic rate ofy growth for what the country needs. to get a higher levels of growth effectively is what the president was talking about this morning. we need to stop talking about higher structural levels of reform and implement it, especially with resolving the financial situation of escon and its abilities. we need to talk about land reform and wetland appropriation without compensation could look like, and we need to make sure from a legislative point of view, what circumstances could take place. there are a number of structural reforms that are necessary but at the same time, we need to ensure fiscal sustainability. lp fromthat is he
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higher levels of growth, but also cutting cost and wastage from government points of view. mike, thank you for joining us this morning. mike brown, ceo of johannesburg-based nedbank. up next, xerox ways a potential bid for hp, a company more than than three times its size. we will speak about that potential deal, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. from london, i'm guy johnson. this is bloomberg markets. time for our stock of
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the hour. hp shares soaring on a possible buyout from xerox. abigail doolittle is here. how likely is it that this deal will happen. given that we had the shares up so much, at 1.18%, ate believe this deal is -- one point 18%, some believe this deal is going to go through. these are the home computers and theters, and xerox, printers and copiers. it would really create a hardware giants, two former tech stars, cost savings of $2 billion to $3 billion. what makes it so interesting, hp of $16 market cap billion, xerox, $8 billion.
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the shares of hp are actually down on the year, down 1%. iraq's has gotten their house in order. xerox haveis -- gotten their house in order. carl icahn is cleaning up, they are divesting some ventures between the two, so xerox is a $2.3 billion windfall from that. and the lawsuit coming from fujifilm's has been lifted. there is also the idea that what is called a highly confident byter has been received xerox from a big bank, saying citi might be lining up for money, for capital here. there are many signs that this big eel could happen, even though xerox is the small company and hp is the larger company. vonnie: the market reaction is positive. abigail doolittle, thank you for that. for more on the potential bid let's welcome our
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analyst. is it expected that xerox comes out of the gate and decides to make a bid for a company three times its size? >> for all the reasons abigail to put it xerox is, politely, the legacy hardware company and has a strong presence in the printing market. it was shrinking pretty rapidly for them to make this pretty bold move to try and acquire the pc and printer giant of hp, which has a strong legacy of its own. that's unusual for sure. try toy do they not just buy the printer bit rather than the whole thing? anand: that's a good question. the interesting thing, the pc business throws a lot of cash out. as a result, you can sort of help balance the two businesses pretty nicely. things is interesting even though the printer business is smaller, it has strong operating margins. the pc business is larger, but
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has weaker operating margins. both the business is put together would look very, very strong in printers, both where xerox has these multi function printers and the lower end, but both businesses are going after the corporate sector in print ing. you have the pc business, which has been benefiting from corporate pc buying as well, so you could have cash flow coming in from pcs to help tide the company over while they fix the ailing printer businesses in both segments and take some synergies out, the $3 billion that was mentioned, and eventually be a slightly smaller but more profitable franchise in the long term. vonnie: [inaudible] in a sense, this could be beneficial to everybody. is there another structure that might work in study? -- work instead?
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anand: one of the great things the regulators are going to get involved with his look at the printing business overlap, which segments, market shares, etc. if we can potentially split the pc and printer business, how can we reorganized the printer usiness and supply business? those are all considerations. and these are businesses that are not structurally growing. both of these businesses have cost extractions in place on their own. put together, some of the pieces from a cost extraction standpoint is greater than the pieces individually. a lot of different structures this is a, but financial engineering story and a cost synergies story. there is no big revenue synergy here to speak of. guy: a final quick question -- can they finance this? anand: they can.
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rob shipman believes there is about $20 billion or so of financing needed. they are going to raise some of the money in stock, that is what the reports say, and you have some bank loans come into play and the remainder of that through bonds. if you do the $20 billion and have the $3 billion synergies, you could be looking at a leverage that is up four times. doable, certainly doable from a bond market perspective. the chances that this deal will actually happen in your head right now. where would you put it? anand: 30% to 50%. somewhere in that range. vonnie: ok. guy: we will leave it there. thank you for the update. joining usvasan, with the update. some breaking news, the biggest opec plus producers -- i wonder if that is code for russia -- the apparently are not pushing for deeper oil cuts. this coming hot on the heels of
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the big build we saw in the u.s. inventories, another blow to the rally we have seen coming through in crude. the battle between shale and opec plus, maybe opec blinked a little bit. we will wait and see. that is the impact on the oil price right now -- brent crude soft to the touch. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. i'm guy from london, johnson. this is bloomberg markets. let's go to chicago, time for futures in focus. holly lifted joining us now from the cma. a huge move in the bond market over the next few days. is this a buying opportunity or is there more to come? holly: i think there is more to come. we have seen a dramatic selloff in a few days, this is the first in war we are getting a brief
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for p -- first in four we are getting a brief review -- brief reprieve. 1.86u start moving beyond in the 10 year yield, you could have something more dramatic. there is an interesting technical pattern at play right now, but if you are member the mantra we used to have, where the fed raises rates three times, you get a? rec you get a recession? i think it -- you get a recession? i think the reverse is true, cut three times and reverse a recession. guy: 10 year probably goes ok, tomorrow's 30 year, talk me through what expectations are there. holly: we need to see how the 10 year goes today. given the backup we have seen in yields over the past three sessions, notwithstanding this arning, they have built in
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good concession into the 10-year. i do not expect this is going to go mushy or ugly or anything like that, but we need to see how it goes for how the demand is at the longer end of the curve, and we can't -- can determine how the bonds will be tomorrow. i'm not anticipating any problems for the afternoon 10-year auction. guy: how much of this is down to what the fed has done and how much of this is down to expectations once we get a trade deal? holly: it is both. the fed has cut three times and put in an insurance policy. a smallwell says it is adjustments, and it could be something like that, nothing larger. if we get the trade deal and oil prices still stable, within a $10 range, i think they have a ordant -- averted a disaster a modest problem, and we continue to see some growth. with stocks making new highs all the time and getting confirmation from some of the underlying indicators, it could
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be a good economy going into resumehether they their hikes or stand by and watch things materialize, that remains to be determined. but i think it is both. fed action as well as potential trade deals -- and let's throw in brexit. maybe it gets resolved as better rather than worse. guy: let's not throw in brexit. , thank you. vonnie: time for the latest bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. bmw's profits are better than expected, 33% in the third quarter. ofs offsets the pressures the investment in electric cars. the company kept its full-year forecast for a slight increase entire delivery. -- beat third-quarter earnings estimates, including sales in north america after months of supply chain problems.
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and missing earnings estimates, as well as a 20% decline in equities trading revenue. 'sat is a blow to the ceo revamp. the french lender is struggling with juggling negative interest rates and a slowing investment bank. that's your latest bloomberg business flash. next, aberdeen standard investment senior manager joins us with the countdown to the european close. we talk brexit development, earnings,ank and much more. meanwhile, a look at where the markets are trading right now. the nasdaq down .4%, even as the dow and the s&p lose a few points. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> is the selloff in the bond markets. is it a buy off opportunity? bad news for softbank after
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today's port numbers. can the ecb reverse negative rates? we are hoping we are going to be joined by robert holtzman. i am guy johnson with vonnie quinn in new york counting you down to the european close right here on "bloomberg markets." ♪ vonnie: losing a couple of points on the s&p 500 in the last few minutes but we are a safe way away from 3000, particularly if you look at the action under the surface. the most traded stock is uber. plenty of earnings surprises to the upside. teasing investors. that has shaved off some of the gains, four point 6%. same with papa john's, the new ceo making managch

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